This scorecard is prepared for Election Day. All predictions are pending until the relevant race has a verified final winner and a reviewed correct/incorrect judgment. No accuracy percentage is assigned prematurely.
Overall Forecasting Record
Forecast snapshot: October 18, 2026. Waiting for results data…
Accuracy by Election Category
The percentage appears only after at least one race in that category has been graded.
Review Every Prediction
Compare the archived forecast against the eventual verified winner.
No predictions match those filters.
How Forecasting Accuracy Is Measured
Neiman's Political Predictions archives election calls before results are known. This page uses the 2026 prediction snapshot and will preserve both correct and incorrect calls. The current dataset is a snapshot, not a complete timestamped record of every historical forecast revision.
Scoring method
- Each completed, verifiable race counts once. Forecasts for specific candidates are judged against the actual winner, not simply whether the same party won.
- A forecast is marked correct or incorrect only when the result has been checked against authoritative election reporting and reviewed.
- Undecided, incomplete, disputed, or unverified races do not count toward the accuracy percentage.
- Where the original prediction does not specify a party, the published candidate choice remains visible rather than assigning a party retroactively.
- Election results, candidate identities, and any corrections should be documented with sources when published.
This is a retrospective scorecard, not a probability calibration metric. Future cycles can add a forecast-change log and statistical measures if numerical win probabilities are published.